India Pakistan ties appear to be free falling down a bottomless pit. Hopes of softening postures by the Modi government-after handling certain internal political obligations, also appear to be subduing.
Despite, nearly constant border skirmishes, maligning accusations, and threats of aggression, Pakistan on its part -continues to show interest in resuming dialogue with India. But, so far India does not seem to be budging from its usual scapegoat stance of ‘growing intolerance towards Pakistan’.
Traditionally, India has advocated for bilateral resolutions of disputes governing the two nations. But, ironically it rarely seems eager to work out cooperative bilateral security initiatives with Pakistan to counter threats that plague the region.
The Indian narrative of growing intolerance appears to have masked attention from several genuine regional security crisis and seems to have focused the attention of prominent global voices on the possible military consequences of that could unravel ‘in case of another alleged attack emanating from Pakistan’.
So far, it seems that India is accounting for relatively ‘optimistic’ outcomes of spinning such a narrative which range from : enhancing its efforts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, aiming to malign emerging economic prospects linked to Pakistan and possibly hoping to gather adequate international backing to impede Pakistan’s defence growth.
However, a focal point for weighing in the less optimistic outcomes should be initiated from the vastly noted recent assessments presented by the US director of National intelligence. In his rather dispassionate view; he seems to offer an unspoken recognition to Pakistani counter terror efforts, by stating that ‘ the threats to US security from Pakistan based group is likely to decrease and could instead be carried out by certain elements from within some groups on opportunistic basis’. Whereas, while discussing India-Pakistan relations, he not only seems to segregate what US opines as threats to its interests , but seems to place equal weight on the Indian posture of ‘ growing intolerance… that may result in further deterioration ’.
Though the common notion dicates that neither India nor Pakistan are seeking reckless adventurism– therefore, such Indian stances then enhance scope of uncertainties stemming from economic strains on both countries due to burgeoning perceived threats, inadequacy of socio-economic developments to improve human conditions in both countries, and continued antagonization of various regional fault lines which further impede prospects of mutual development.
Ideally, at this point the two countries need to resume genuine dialogue efforts, work towards creating irreversible bilateral ties, effectively counter mutual threats and devise mutually agreed upon political solutions where needed.
Despite the recent contentions over Indian espionage efforts, There is also an impatient wait to see how the upcoming SCO meeting shapes up Pak-India ties. The SCO development strategy more or less binds the two countries to work towards improved regional security, so at this point it is imperative for India to engage in open dialogue with Pakistan to devise meaningful ties , similarly Pakistan should also work towards a coherent Indian policy.