Pakistan-India: Surgical Strikes and War mongering

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On 14 February 2019, a convoy of vehicles- carrying Indian security personnel- was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber in the Pulwama District in the Indian Occupied Kashmir- leaving 44 Indian paramilitary soldiers dead. The attack was allegedly claimed by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) group. Soon after the attack, India began with its usual waves of blame games with Pakistan. In response, the Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson strongly rejected any insinuation that sought to link the attack to Pakistan without investigations.

The situation between Pakistan and India has been in a downward spiral since the Pulwana attacks. India- has expedited its traditional attempts to try to isolate Pakistan at the diplomatic level- Pakistan was also instantly disconnected from the MFN status with India. Both countries also summoned each other’s envoys. The Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley alleged that there is “incontrovertible evidence” of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pulwana attacks. Pakistan rejected Indian government’s allegations of intrusion.

In the wake of the incident Prime Minister Imran Khan directed Pakistan Army to respond “decisively and comprehensively” to any aggression or misadventure by India.

As tensions heightened an important conference detailing the situation revolving the Pulwana attack was addressed by the DG ISPR . In the press release the DG ISPR stated that the attack perpetuated in Pulwana was instantly pinned on Pakistan, without any evidences. Pakistan decided on undertake its own investigation before drafting a response to India- only to validate that no Pakistani collusion was attached to Pulwana attacks. The DG ISPR warned that since Pakistan is engaged in 5G warfare, and houses a significant youth population- it is necessary to educate the Pakistani youth with correct ground realities in order to prevent their minds from being swayed away by false propagandas. The DG ISPR therefore- elaborated on correct historical facts during the conference. He mentioned the India’s provocations against Pakistan since 1947 because India has not been able to accept the notion of Pakistan- this was manifested in 1965 and 1971. Then from 1971 till 1984 there was a relative calm along the LoC- and hence Pakistan witnessed some prosperity as it wasn’t continuously being bogged down by India. Ultimately, by 1998 Pakistan became a nuclear power for self defense against India’s conventional and nuclear capabilities and to deter Indian provocations. India then relied on methods on unconventional warfare such as perpetuating terrorism within Pakistan- Kulbushan is case in point amongst several such cases.

The period of 2001 onward- in the wake of the War on Terror- further revealed nefarious Indian intentions. As Pakistani forces were engaged in its commitment against terrorism on the Western borders, India kept provoking the situation at the Eastern border, two major false flag operations took place during the 2001-2002 twin peak crisis, and during the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Despite all Indian provocations Pakistan pressed for peace – the hotline between the Pakistani and Indian DGMO’s was established in 2003, Pakistan tried to engage India in composite dialogue process, which was discontinued by Indian in 2008.

Another noteworthy trend of Indian provocations-  that was highlighted the DG ISPR further brings to doubt the Indian claims. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack took place prior to the Indian elections in 2002, 2008 Mumbai attacks took place just as Pakistan began making progress in the WoT and yet again India was about to embark on an election season. India began enhancing its false flag operation since 2016 onwards- Pathankot attacks took place prior to state elections in India.

India has exhibited a trend of perpetuating such false flag attacks each time Pakistan is supposed undergo an important event. Pakistan and India were about to have a foreign secretary level meeting prior to the Pathankot attacks, the Uri attack happened prior to the UNGA session and at a time when Pakistan was making a case for gruesome Indian atrocities in Kashmir.

 In line with these trends- the Pulwana attack took place at an extremely crucial time for Pakistan- Pakistan was about to host the influential Saudi Crown Prince MBS, the UNSC was deciding the terror finance, Afghanistan reconciliation had made critical developments, the EU parliament for the first time was discussing the Indian atrocities in Kashmir, ICJ was hearing Yadav’s case , the FATF decision was due, the Pakistan-India Kartarpur developments were enhancing, Pakistan was hosting superleague matches. At such a critical time and in the midst of positive developments , Pakistan would have no incentive to perpetuate any attack that would sabotage any of these developments. While on the other hand, India is yet again about to undergo elections in April 2019- the internal situation in India is deplorable, Modi has clearly failed to keep his election promises, unemployment, minority rights abuses, and extremism is on the rise in India, coupled to this – the indigenous struggle of the Kashmiri’s against Indian oppression has gone out of India’s control- the freedom movement has become structureless, as essentially every oppressed Kashmiri is engaged in the struggle against Indian oppression. The young suicide bomber in the Pulwama attack was a native of IHK. For many years now, India’s increasingly strong-arm, brutal tactics in IHK have alienated the local population who have had no need of outside help to vent their anger and frustration. Young Kashmiris are taking up the gun and attacking symbols of the Indian establishment. Kashmiris are distrusted and treated poorly in many parts of India, whether as students or as traders.

India continues to work on its desire to diplomatically isolate Pakistan- but has been failing in its agendas- this is clear by the increasing FDI in Pakistan, increasing visits of foreign dignitaries, increasing militray diplomacy.

The Modi Government is clearly desperate and is changing the course of history for mere political mileage. India is escalating regional tensions and war hysteria. On 26th February 2019- India’s Foreign Secretary VK Gokhale claimed that the country’s air force “struck the biggest training camp of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in Balakot. India made false claims of entering Pakistani territory and killing 300 militants. Instead India violated Pakistani airspace by entering about 3-4miles to provoke Pakistan- but the readiness of the Pakistani air force managed to immediately chase out Indian aircrafts out of the territory.  In the proceeding hours, India did not discontinue its provocations and yet again attempted to enter Pakistani territory. In response, Pakistani air force- shot down an Indian aircraft that breached Pakistani territory and apprehended the Indian pilot.  In the wake of the recent events, the Pakistani Government and Armed forces- are still giving extremely responsible statements and suggesting that India needs to reconsider its policies , stop acting out of desperation for petty political gains, and give eminence to regional peace. The Pakistani PM has clearly offered India to engage in dialogue and offer concrete evidence of its claims and if India actually has any evidence- Pakistan would fully cooperate. However, it is evident that Indian government is trying to create a war hysteria diversion prior to election season, and is trying its best to derail the visible track of prosperity Pakistan is embarking on. It is now upto India how it shapes up history, Pakistan on its part- has clearly called for peace but will respond in like to all Indian adventurism.

TACSTRAT ANALYSIS

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